Synthesis and Assessment Product

This Report (SAP 4.2) focuses on the thresholds of Climate Change in Ecosystems. As defined in this Synthesis and Assessment Report, 'an ecological threshold is the point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem quality, property, or phenomenon, or where small changes in one or more external conditions produce large and persistent responses in an ecosystem'.Ecological thresholds occur when external factors, positive feedbacks, or nonlinear instabilities in a system cause changes to propagate in a domino-like fashion that is potentially irreversible. This report reviews threshold changes in North American ecosystems that are potentially induced by climatic change and addresses the significant challenges these threshold crossings impose on resource and land managers. Sudden changes to ecosystems and the goods and services they provide are not well understood, but they are extremely important if natural resource managers are to succeed in developing adaptation strategies in a changing world. The report provides an overview of what is known about ecological thresholds and where they are likely to occur. It also identifies those areas where research is most needed to improve knowledge and understand the uncertainties regarding them. The report suggests a suite of potential actions that land and resource managers could use to improve the likelihood of success for the resources they manage, even under conditions of incomplete understanding of what drives thresholds of change and when changes will occur

Analysis of LIGO data for gravitational waves from binary neutron stars

We report on a search for gravitational waves from coalescing compact binary systems in the Milky Way and the Magellanic Clouds. The analysis uses data taken by two of the three LIGO interferometers during the first LIGO science run and illustrates a method of setting upper limits on inspiral event rates using interferometer data. The analysis pipeline is described with particular attention to data selection and coincidence between the two interferometers. We establish an observational upper limit of $\mathcal{R}<$1.7 \times 10^{2}$per year per Milky Way Equivalent Galaxy (MWEG), with 90coalescence rate of binary systems in which each component has a mass in the range 1--3$M_\odot$.Comment: 17 pages, 9 figure

Female chromosome X mosaicism is age-related and preferentially affects the inactivated X chromosome

To investigate large structural clonal mosaicism of chromosome X, we analysed the SNP microarray intensity data of 38,303 women from cancer genome-wide association studies (20,878 cases and 17,425 controls) and detected 124 mosaic X events42Mb in 97 (0.25%) women. Here we show rates for X-chromosome mosaicism are four times higher than mean autosomal rates; X mosaic events more often include the entire chromosome and participants with X events more likely harbour autosomal mosaic events. X mosaicism frequency increases with age (0.11% in 50-year olds; 0.45% in 75-year olds), as reported for Y and autosomes. Methylation array analyses of 33 women with X mosaicism indicate events preferentially involve the inactive X chromosome. Our results provide further evidence that the sex chromosomes undergo mosaic events more frequently than autosomes, which could have implications for understanding the underlying mechanisms of mosaic events and their possible contribution to risk for chronic diseases

Factors Associated with Revision Surgery after Internal Fixation of Hip Fractures

Background: Femoral neck fractures are associated with high rates of revision surgery after management with internal fixation. Using data from the Fixation using Alternative Implants for the Treatment of Hip fractures (FAITH) trial evaluating methods of internal fixation in patients with femoral neck fractures, we investigated associations between baseline and surgical factors and the need for revision surgery to promote healing, relieve pain, treat infection or improve function over 24 months postsurgery. Additionally, we investigated factors associated with (1) hardware removal and (2) implant exchange from cancellous screws (CS) or sliding hip screw (SHS) to total hip arthroplasty, hemiarthroplasty, or another internal fixation device. Methods: We identified 15 potential factors a priori that may be associated with revision surgery, 7 with hardware removal, and 14 with implant exchange. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses in our investigation. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of revision surgery included: female sex, [hazard ratio (HR) 1.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.25-2.50; P = 0.001], higher body mass index (fo

Ecology and Climate of the Earth—The Same Biogeophysical System

Ecology and the climate provide two perspectives of the same biogeophysical system at all spatiotemporal scales More effectively embracing this congruence is an opportunity to improve scientific understanding and predictions as well as for a more effective policy that integrates both the bottom-up community, business-driven framework, and the popular, top-down impact assessment framework. The objective of this paper is, therefore, to more closely integrate the diverse spectrum of scientists, engineers and policymakers into finding optimal solutions to reduce the risk to environmental and social threats by considering the ecology and climate as an integrated system. Assessments such as performed towards the 2030 Plan for Sustainable Development, with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals and its Goal 13 in particular, can achieve more progress by accounting for the intimate connection of all aspects of the Earth’s biogeophysical system

Support Vector Machines for Recognition of Semi-Arid Vegetation Types using MISR Multi-Angle Imagery

Accurately mapping community types is one of the main challenges for monitoring arid and semi-arid grasslands with remote sensing. The multi-angle approach has been proven useful for mapping vegetation types in desert grassland. The Multi-angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) provides 4 spectral bands and 9 angular reflectance. In this study, 44 classification experiments have been implemented to find the optimal combination of MISR multi-angular data to mine the information carried by MISR data as effectively as possible. These experiments show the following findings: 1) The combination of MISR\u27s 4 spectral bands at nadir and red and near infrared bands in the C, B, and A cameras observing off-nadir can obtain the best vegetation type differentiation at the community level in New Mexico desert grasslands. 2) The k parameter at red band of Modified-Rahman-Pinty-Verstraete (MRPV) model and the structural scattering index (SSI) can bring useful additional information to land cover classification. The information carried by these two parameters, however, is less than that carried by surface anisotropy patterns described by the MRPV model and a linear semi-empirical kernel-driven bidirectional reflectance distribution function model, the RossThin-LiSparseMODIS (RTnLS) model. These experiments prove that: 1) multi-angular reflectance raise overall classification accuracy from 45.8% for nadir-only reflectance to 60.9%. 2) With surface anisotropy patterns derived from MRPV and RTnLS, an overall accuracy of 68.1% can be obtained when maximum likelihood algorithms are used. 3) Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms can raise the classification accuracy to 76.7%. This research shows that multi-angular reflectance, surface anisotropy patterns and SVM algorithms can improve desert vegetation type differentiation importantly

Differentiation of Semi-Arid Vegetation Types Based on Multi-Angular Observations from MISR and MODIS

Mapping accurately vegetation type is one of the main challenges for monitoring arid and semi-arid grasslands with remote sensing. The multi-angle approach has been demonstrated to be useful for mapping vegetation types in deserts. The current paper presents a study on the use of directional reflectance derived from two sensor systems, using two different models to analyse the data and two different classifiers as a means of mapping vegetation types. The multiangle imaging spectroradiometer (MISR) and the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) provide multi-spectral and angular, off-nadir observations. In this study, we demonstrate that reflectance from MISR observations and reflectance anisotropy patterns derived from MODIS observations are capable of working together to increase classification accuracy. The patterns are described by parameters of the modified Rahman-Pinty-Verstraete and the RossThin-LiSparseMODIS bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) models. The anisotropy patterns derived from MODIS observations are highly complementary to reflectance derived from radiances observed by MISR. Support vector machine algorithms exploit the information carried by the same data sets more effectively than the maximum likelihood classifier

Mapping Woody Plant Cover in Desert Grasslands using Canopy Reflectance Modeling and MISR Data

A simplified geometric-optical model (SGM) was inverted using red band reflectance data acquired at 275 m in nine viewing angles from the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) flown on NASA\u27s Terra satellite, to provide estimates of fractional woody plant cover for large areas (over 3519 km 2) in parts of the Chihuahuan Desert in New Mexico, USA. The use of the model in these semi-arid environments was enabled by the derivation of a priori estimates of the soil/understory background reflectance response. This was made possible by determining relationships between the kernel weights from a LiSparse-RossThin model adjusted against the same MISR data - together with spectral reflectance data derived from MISR\u27s nadir-viewing camera - and the parameters of the Walthall model used to represent the background. Spatial distributions of retrieved fractional woody plant cover match those of % tree cover in the global MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields product but also include shrubs. Good relationships were obtained with fractional shrub cover measured in pastures in the USDA, ARS Jomada Experimental Range but tree cover in higher elevation and riparian zones was dramatically overestimated as a result of the fixing of crown height and shape parameters

Remote Sensing of Woody Shrub Cover in Desert Grasslands using MISR with a Geometric-Optical Canopy Reflectance Model

A new method is described for the retrieval of fractional cover of large woody plants (shrubs) at the landscape scale using moderate resolution multi-angle remote sensing data from the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) and a hybrid geometric-optical (GO) canopy reflectance model. Remote sensing from space is the only feasible method for regularly mapping woody shrub cover over large areas, an important application because extensive woody shrub encroachment into former grasslands has been seen in arid and semi-arid grasslands around the world during the last 150 years. The major difficulty in applying GO models in desert grasslands is the spatially dynamic nature of the combined soil and understory background reflectance: the background is important and cannot be modeled as either a Lambertian scatterer or by using a fixed bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF). Candidate predictors of the background BRDF at the Sun-target-MISR angular sampling configurations included the volume scattering kernel weight from a Li-Ross BRDF model; diffuse brightness (ρ0) from the Modified Rahman-Pinty-Verstraete (MRPV) BRDF model; other Li-Ross kernel weights (isotropic, geometric); and MISR near-nadir bidirectional reflectance factors (BRFs) in the blue, green, and near infra-red bands. The best method was multiple regression on the weights of a kernel-driven model and MISR nadir camera blue, green, and near infra-red bidirectional reflectance factors. The results of forward modeling BRFs for a 5.25 km2 area in the USDA, ARS Jornada Experimental Range using the Simple Geometric Model (SGM) with this background showed good agreement with the MISR data in both shape and magnitude, with only minor spatial discrepancies. The simulations were shown to be accurate in terms of both absolute value and reflectance anisotropy over all 9 MISR views and for a wide range of canopy configurations (r2 = 0.78, RMSE = 0.013, N = 3969). Inversion of the SGM allowed estimation of fractional shrub cover with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.03 but a relatively weak correlation (r2 = 0.19) with the reference data (shrub cover estimated from high resolution IKONOS panchromatic imagery). The map of retrieved fractional shrub cover was an approximate spatial match to the reference map. Deviations reflect the first-order approximation of the understory BRDF in the MISR viewing plane; errors in the shrub statistics; and the 12 month lag between the two data sets